Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% in the first half of August, the upper end of Banxico’s target range, will probably prompt the central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle. But with... 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker Mexican inflation to drive more Banxico cuts Headline inflation in Mexico looks set to fall towards 3% over the coming months as both food and core inflation soften. We think that will give Banxico scope to cut its policy rate by an additional... 18th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What Mexico’s current account means for the peso We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The solid 17.9% m/m rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was largely driven by the reopening of auto factories. While production appears to have strengthened in July, further gains will... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) We don’t think that the further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of July will be a major cause for concern for the central bank. Policymakers are likely to focus on the... 23rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The further fall in Mexico’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that GDP suffered a double-digit slump in Q2 (in q/q terms), and suggests that the recovery is lagging those in the rest... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.3% y/y in June, from 2.8% y/y in May, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. We think this trend has a bit further to run, although it is unlikely to... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican headline inflation to 3.2% y/y in the middle of June will keep policymakers in a cautious mood – something that’s likely to be reflected in the tone of the statement from tomorrow... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 25.1% m/m collapse in Mexico’s industrial production in April suggests that Mexico’s economy suffered a hefty blow in Q2. Although this may mark the bottom for industry, it will add pressure for... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of May, to 2.8% (from 2.1% in April), may prompt the central bank to slow the pace of easing (or even pause its cycle) at next... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
