Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: surprise hike a sign of things to come The surprise 25bp rate hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 4.25%) suggests that its reaction function is less dovish that we had expected, as it is now reacting to quell high inflation. With the... 25th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The strength of the Mexican headline and core inflation readings in the first half of June is likely to prompt a more cautious approach by Banxico at its meeting later today. Even so, we suspect that... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A deep dive into Mexican inflation Headline Mexican inflation has now peaked and will drop back within Banxico’s 2-4% target range as the earlier spike in fuel inflation unwinds. In contrast, we expect that core inflation will continue... 21st June 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The surprise drop in Mexican industrial production in April may partly be payback for a strong March. And early indicators suggest that industrial activity picked up in May. Moreover, with services... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Mexican core inflation to its highest rate in over three years in May, at 4.4%, appears mainly to be related to temporary factors. Policymakers at the central bank will probably continue... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by a sharp fall in energy inflation. While we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months, there... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico statement points to a long pause The statement accompanying the Banxico Board’s decision to keep the policy rate at 4.00% suggests that policymakers’ concerns about inflation risks are growing, but it doesn’t change our view that... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in March masked a more impressive 3.0% m/m increase in output in the key manufacturing sector, which recovered from disruptions caused by power... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 6.1% y/y in April was mainly driven by unfavourable base effects linked to fuel prices and this impact should unwind over the coming months. We think that Banxico... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The modest 0.4% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 largely reflects the economy’s poor performance at the start of the year. The good news is that the recovery got back on track at the end of the quarter... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The jump in Mexican inflation to 6.1% y/y in the first half of April was primarily linked to unfavourable base effects from low oil prices a year ago. We doubt that this will concern the central bank... 22nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
