Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: few signs of green shoots After slipping into a technical recession at the back end of 2021, the latest surveys suggest that Mexico’s economy remains in a weak spot at the start of 2022 owing to Omicron-related disruption. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The 0.1% q/q fall in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy slipped into a recession over the second half of 2021, and we think growth this year will be weaker than most expect. Despite the... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The fall in Mexico’s inflation to 7.1% y/y in the first two weeks of the year gave the first sign that inflation has peaked and we think that it will continue to trend lower over the coming months... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile? President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The disappointing 0.1% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in November raises the chances that the economy slipped into a recession last quarter. And while auto production looks to have... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Mexico stabilised at 7.4% y/y in December and, with price pressures likely to remain strong, we expect Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike, to 6.00%, at its meeting in February... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 10.4% y/y, in mid-December is likely to be followed by further declines in the coming months. Inflation in Mexico edged up in the same period, to 7.45% y/y, but we... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
