Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy... 2nd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump's tariffs hit – Gauging the global macro and market consequences 1738576800 Donald Trump raised the stakes for the global economy with an announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% tariffs on goods from China.
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: In the tariff crosshairs Parts of Latin America have been in President Trump’s firing line over the past week. While there’s uncertainty over exactly what tariffs Mexico could face (if they are imposed tomorrow, as Trump has... 31st January 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 2024 Provisional) The much larger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 is likely to strengthen the argument for a 50bp interest rate cut, to 9.50%, at next week’s Banxico meeting. That now looks like the... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up again over the past few weeks amid a strengthening of the US dollar and broad increases in bond yields, but also country-specific issues – most notable... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer... 15th January 2025 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: better placed to face Trump now? Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
