Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s final presidential vote, Pemex woes The final round of Argentina’s presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa on Sunday offers starkly different paths for the economy – shock therapy or more of the current government’s... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to the... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to a 31-month low of 4.3% y/y in the first half of October masked a worrying pick-up in services inflation. This, combined with rapid wage growth and... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Mexico’s construction boom Polls suggest that centre-right candidate Daniel Noboa will win Ecuador's presidential election on Sunday, which would alleviate some of the pressure on the public finances. But we think it’s unlikely... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a modest 0.3% m/m rise in output in August as another jump in construction output more than offset renewed weakness in manufacturing. But more timely indicators... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
