Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation in Mexico dropped to a 21-month low of 5.8% y/y in May and will continue to decline over the coming months. That said, the strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico to keep rates high for longer than most expect Mexico’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, bringing the tightening cycle to an end. But with inflation unlikely to return to target until late-2024, policy will... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Best of Mexico’s recovery now over Mexico’s economy has put in a decent performance over the past year or so, but we think that most of the factors that have supported robust growth have now run their course. Tight policy and a looming... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y in April, was broad-based and will provide some comfort to officials at the central bank that price pressures are finally easing. This means... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The 1.1% q/q rise in Mexican GDP in Q1 marked a pick-up from the end of last year, but a fresh slowdown is on the cards as a recession in the US and tight policy at home will take their toll. 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
