Latin America Economics Focus

What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico?

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter...

12th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections

This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in...

7th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib

Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely...

1st March 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope

Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public...

27th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight

Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company...

12th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments

This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most...

9th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024)

The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further fall...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts

Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read