Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024) The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s export surge means for Latin America Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth across Latin America is likely to be weaker than most expect in the next... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of September, to 4.7% y/y, supports our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle with another 25bp cut on Thursday. 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge 1727791200 Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus... 19th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Update Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot? The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of... 11th September 2024 · 7 mins read
