Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s growth model showing signs of exhaustion Our GDP tracker suggests that the recent slowdown in Ecuador’s economy abated in Q2. But this has come alongside a sharp widening of the fiscal deficit. With external financing options limited, we are... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fed sends markets reeling Latin American bonds, equities and currencies have slumped over the past month after the US Fed signalled its intention to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year. But while financial... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand offsets external weakness Growth in Latin America has continued to rebound in recent months. But while the economy is on course to expand by about 3% y/y in Q1, the pace of growth remains far below the 5-6% y/y rates that were... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: recent slowdown has further to run The pace of growth of Ecuador’s economy slowed substantially in 2012 and we expect this trend to continue over the current year. This is unlikely to put a serious dent in President Correa’s bid for re... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
