Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth slowed sharply in May and has now reversed almost all its reopening recovery. This poses a downside risk to growth and strengthens the case for additional policy support. 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jun.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the first time since last summer, reflecting growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s recovery. Friday’s State Council meeting... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Pause not an end to monetary tightening Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left its main policy rate unchanged today at 21%, but we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the SBP’s tightening cycle. With inflation well above target... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle won’t need... 12th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai inflation below target, tourism rebound continues Inflation in Thailand fell back sharply last month and is now below the central bank’s target, further supporting our view that the BoT’s tightening cycle is now over. Tourism across Asia has... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 87-month low. Consumer price inflation edged up but remained depressed. Core inflation slipped slightly, suggesting that the immediate... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Won weakness likely to continue this year Dismal economic growth has established the Korean won as one of the worst-performing emerging market (EM) currencies against the dollar this year. We expect Korea’s bleak growth prospects and... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
