Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit will be larger than we had thought While the ratio of tax revenue to GDP last year was the highest it has been since the 1980s, growth in tax revenue has been weaker in recent months than we had anticipated despite strong growth in the... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2023) With the labour market still running red hot, we think the Reserve Bank of Australia has more work to do. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBA will lift its cash rate to 4.60% by... 20th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2023) Although price pressures are dissipating, they could prove stickier on the way down than we anticipate. As things stand, we don’t think the data are strong enough to prompt the RBNZ to resume its... 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun.) GDP growth slowed more quickly than expected in Q2 due to a rapid fizzling out of the reopening boost. Continued weakness in the property sector, possible loosening in the labour market and few signs... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) Electricity tariff hikes that went into effect last month led to a rise in headline inflation. However, underlying inflation fell as was the case in Tokyo, for the first time in more than a year. Over... 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in June as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the faster fall in import prices. Export climate readings suggest export volume growth will fall... 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai election farce, BoK’s hawkish hold, El Niño risks The winner of Thailand’s election, Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward Party, on Thursday failed to secure enough votes in parliament to become the country’s next prime minister. This raises the... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Targeted rather than broad policy support Policymakers have taken further steps to support the economy this week. But these moves have been targeted at struggling sectors rather than the wider economy through broad policy stimulus. We think... 14th July 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only deliver two more rate hikes Inflation seems to be overshooting the RBA’s forecasts and the recent acceleration in pay hikes in enterprise bargaining agreements will add to the Bank’s concerns that inflation expectations may... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly May wage data hints at virtuous wage-price cycle Regular pay growth was the strongest in May in almost three decades and suggests that we may have underestimated the influence the stellar result from this year’s annual spring wage negotiations will... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
