Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ in fighting retreat from yield control 10-year government bond yields have steadily risen since the BoJ effectively raised the yield ceiling from 0.5% to 1.0% last Friday and could test the new ceiling by year-end. If that happens, we... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jun. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: no more rate hikes, El Niño the key risk 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2023) Although New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose slightly last quarter, the labour market remains very tight by historical standards. However, early signs are that the balance of labour demand and supply... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in July to a three-month low, and we expect higher rates and subdued global demand to weigh more substantially on manufacturing activity over the coming months. 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 23) 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (July.) Manufacturing PMIs remained in contractionary territory across most of Emerging Asia last month and the underlying data point to further weakness ahead. Falling new orders, bleak employment prospects... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
