China Economics Update Deflation likely temporary but slowdown isn’t Consumer price inflation slipped into negative territory in July. But this probably won’t last more than a quarter or two and has less to do with the health of domestic demand than many think... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession now looking unlikely Wage growth has been strong in recent months which will make it easier for households to cope with high inflation. What’s more, the outlook for external demand has brightened as we no longer expect... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt upward pressures on the JGB yield will last The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds may come closer to the new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0% in the coming months, but we doubt it will settle that high further ahead. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI maintains hawkish tone amid food price surge The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month. But this was due to a sharp drop in food inflation caused by base effects. More importantly, core inflation rose to its highest since January and... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Jul.) Chinese exports contracted in July by the most since the start of the pandemic. But the recent declines mostly reflect lower prices rather than volumes, which are still well above their pre-pandemic... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing rebound has further to run We previously argued that stretched housing affordability and a looser labour market would result in a second leg down in house prices. However, with the housing market going from strength to strength... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2023) Official figures show Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter of the year, slightly higher than the 5.0% growth rate recorded in Q1. In contrast, our own Activity Tracker suggests... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Near-term fiscal boost, follow-up measures needed Local governments have been told to issue and spend their remaining special bond quotas by end-October, which will boost fiscal outlays in the near-term. But more needs to be done to prevent a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
