India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending exposes India’s weak spot Continued strong growth in unsecured lending is putting India’s banks at risk of rising defaults, a concern that is exacerbated by their relatively low loan loss absorption capacity. This raises the... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by 25 bps (to 6.50%) in an out-of-cycle interest rate decision. While we had expected an interest rate hike at the upcoming... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q3) Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) With price pressures being slower to abate than the RBA had anticipated, we think the Bank will deliver one final 25bp rate at its next meeting in November. 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia election – what is at stake? Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal support needed to prevent end-year slump The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year. Fiscal... 24th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: How much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies? 1698739200 In light of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement this today, our Asia team hosted an online briefing all about the impact of rising bond yields on Asia’s economies and markets.
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will policymakers react to weaker currencies? A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems. If Asian currencies remain under downward pressure we expect policymakers to step up their... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP breakdown suggests service sector still struggling The official GDP figures show a marked acceleration in quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. But a closer look at the data suggests that this may be a statistical mirage. We think that growth slowed last... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market bolsters case for a final rate hike The decline in Australia's labour force in September reinforces our view that net migration is providing less of a boost to labour supply than many had anticipated. Indeed, NAB's Q3 business survey... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Profit boost from weak yen helps sustain virtuous cycle As we had anticipated, the weak yen isn’t providing a big boost to Japan’s export volumes. Instead, its impact is mainly felt via higher yen revenue and costs. With firms having passed on the full... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Shunto will result in base pay hike well above 2% Japan’s trade unions are demanding an even larger pay hike in the upcoming spring wage negotiations and we believe that the talks will result in a base pay hike of around 2.5%. While the Bank of Japan... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
