Asia Rapid Response Rate cuts likely from June 2024 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its policy rate unchanged again today, but with economic growth set to slow sharply and inflation on its way down, we expect the CBC to start cutting rates from June. 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Japan Chart pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth should rebound modestly in the fourth quarter but we expect it will remain soft in 2024... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 23) Even though employment growth remains strong, job creation isn’t fast enough to absorb the surge in the labour force. Accordingly, we expect the unemployment rate to keep rising. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 13th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan election: 3.5% growth target is unachievable The front runner in Taiwan’s election, Lai Ching-te, is targeting economic growth of 3.5% if he wins the presidency. We think this will be out of reach. Although productivity growth should hold up... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Another fiscal surplus is in sight Today’s budget update showed that the government now expects a balanced budget in 2023/24, as opposed to the modest deficit it had projected a few months ago. With revenue likely to outperform the... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will end negative rates in January The Bank of Japan is increasingly keen to abolish negative interest rates and we think the most likely venue is the Bank’s January meeting. However, we only expect one interest rate hike to 0.1% as... 12th December 2023 · 8 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer price inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.6% y/y in November amid a renewed rise in food price inflation and the timely daily data point to a further uptick in December. This... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update The implications of rising Philippines-China tensions Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
