Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update The implications of rising Philippines-China tensions Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. The main culprit continues to be food and energy prices – the rate of core inflation held steady and remains positive. Services inflation, the... 11th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of the RBNZ’s new framework We doubt that the removal of the RBNZ’s employment objective would make much difference to economic outcomes, but forcing the Bank to achieve its inflation target within too short a period of time... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility rates in Korea; BSP on hold The fertility rate in Korea fell to a record low of just 0.7 births per woman in the third quarter of this year – the lowest in the world. The country’s dreadful demographic outlook is the key reason... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Debt woes widely known but far from priced in Moody’s downgrade to China’s rating outlook received a muted response in markets. That’s partly because the country’s economic challenges are already widely known. But the bigger picture is that... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI in no rush to loosen policy The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. Against a backdrop of robust economic growth and a renewed rise in food inflation, we doubt the... 8th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sending further signals that negative rates will end Data released this week showed that inflation fell sharply in Tokyo while wage growth remains well below the levels the BoJ considers necessary for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rate cuts will be in play sooner than most expect The RBA's revised Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy has been interpreted as hawkish by some commentators. However, our view is that the new statement doesn't meaningfully alter the RBA's... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Nov.) China’s export values rose year-on-year for the first time since May while the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, supported by exporters reducing prices. We doubt this robustness will persist... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Oct. 2023) 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
