Climate Economics Update Clearing the air on the economics of pollution Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. In light of the... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Long-term debt sustainability still under threat The recent sharp fall in Japan’s ratio of public debt to GDP reflects one-off factors that won’t be sustained. While the influence of rising bond yields on the trajectory of the public finances will... 8th January 2024 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK meeting, Philippines inflation, Asian elections The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. But with inflation falling and concerns about the economy mounting, we expect the central bank to... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to boost current account position Data from the World Bank show that India remained the world's largest recipient of remittances in 2023. While growth in remittances will slow a touch in 2024, they should remain an important source of... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese stocks will continue to underperform As we had anticipated, the outperformance of the Topix against the S&P 500 has unraveled as the yen has strengthened against the dollar. And with Japanese manufacturing losing ground abroad and... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the RBA will ease sooner than most expect Although the analyst consensus expects the RBA to cut rates only in September, we're sticking with our view that the RBA will loosen policy as early as May. For one thing, the household cash flow... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily 2024 could be a better year for the yen than the renminbi We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the low saving rate an accounting illusion? Australian household finances are in better shape than the plunge in the household savings rate would suggest. While we still think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than expected over the coming... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections across Asia in 2024 In a busy electoral calendar, seven countries in Emerging Asia will go to the polls this year. The votes will have important implications for geopolitics (Taiwan), long-term economic reform prospects... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that growth in the sector is likely to hold up well in 2024 and that India... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade (December) The December PMIs for most economies in Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Dec.) The official and Caixin PMIs have moved in opposite directions recently. But taken together, they point to some improvement in economic momentum in December thanks to gains in services and... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
