China Economics Weekly

Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease

The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is...

12th January 2024 · 7 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)

The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades...

12th January 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

Merchandise Trade (Dec.)

China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly

Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data

Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet

While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still...

12th January 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)

Smaller y/y declines in a food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will continue over the coming quarters. But concerns about low inflation...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 23)

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Dovish signals from the BoK supports case for early rate cuts

The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but struck a more dovish tone than after previous meetings. With inflation on the way down and growth likely to struggle over the coming...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Could it finally be Chinese equities’ year?

We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak.

10th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

What happens after Taiwan's election?

China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be...

10th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 23)

With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start to cut rates as early as May.

9th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 23)

9th January 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

Why has FDI into India slumped?

The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop...

9th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Nov.)

Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday sales. With underlying momentum in consumer spending weaker than the...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read