Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q4) Economic growth in Korea held up better than expected in Q4 but we expect the economy to grow below trend over the next couple of quarters as export growth softens in near term while tight fiscal and... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting The central bank (BNM) left the overnight policy rate unchanged (at 3.0%) today and we think monetary policy is set for an extended pause as policymakers attempt to strike a balance between supporting... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 23) With inflation falling rapidly, risks are tilted towards the RBNZ cutting rates sooner than Q3, as we’re currently predicting. 23rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s economy in the era of AI India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in... 23rd January 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy normalisation is in sight The Bank of Japan sounds increasingly confident that it will be able to achieve its inflation target on a sustained basis. With Mr Ueda at the post-BOJ-meeting press conference again emphasising the... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well... 23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Currency weakness unlikely to last, BNM on hold The recent fall in Asian currencies is likely to reverse later in the year, if as we anticipate, the US Fed starts to cut interest rates soon. A rebound in Asian currencies should create an... 19th January 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil is not flowing so smoothly anymore Increasing enforcement of the G7’s price cap on Russian oil could force India to buy crude from elsewhere at higher prices, but we doubt this will deal a major blow to the external position. Meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector doing better, births may rise in 2024 After years of being buffeted by trade tensions and a domestic regulatory crackdown, China’s tech sector has finally regained a bit of momentum recently. And although China’s population will shrink... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q4, advanced estimate) GDP declined during the fourth quarter and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term amid elevated interest rates, a cooling labour market, soft foreign demand and subdued commodity prices. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
