Japan Economics Focus Services inflation will moderate again While most of the recent pick-up in services inflation has been driven by just a handful of components, there’s been an upward shift in the distribution of price changes across the CPI basket. However... 15th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: rise in female participation rate a welcome sign Korea’s December labour market report published earlier this week show the country is making welcome progress in bringing more women into the formal labour force. Unfortunately, however, this recent... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Dec.) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Smaller y/y declines in a food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will continue over the coming quarters. But concerns about low inflation... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 23) 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish signals from the BoK supports case for early rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but struck a more dovish tone than after previous meetings. With inflation on the way down and growth likely to struggle over the coming... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Could it finally be Chinese equities’ year? We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. 10th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What happens after Taiwan's election? China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be... 10th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 23) With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start to cut rates as early as May. 9th January 2024 · 2 mins read
