Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity likely to remain... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly End-year bonuses will signal strength of wage pressure The upcoming wage and bonus data for the end of 2023 will provide a check on the temperature of Japan’s labour market. They will show that earnings are still being outstripped by inflation. But what... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal and monetary restraint The Finance Ministry resisted the temptation to ramp up pre-election giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25, and we think the RBI will show similar restraint next week by maintaining its hawkish... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan election: major challenges await next PM The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry shows restraint as election looms Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated a long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit in the Interim Budget announcement for FY24/25. There is always a... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The final manufacturing PMI reading for January suggests that activity got off to a strong start this year. Looking ahead, while manufacturing output is likely to moderate in the coming months, it... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) Although house price gains remained firm in January, we still expect them to soften in the months ahead. While rate cuts are on the horizon, they will do little to improve homebuying capacity. 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
RBA Watch A dovish pivot is on the horizon We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly... 31st January 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Taiwan accelerated further in Q4, and we expect growth to remain strong over the coming quarters, with robust growth in exports of products linked to AI set to more than offset the drag... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
