Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Ousting of Thai PM could spell bad news for the economy Thailand's Constitutional Court today dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a move that could trigger further political instability and bodes poorly for the country’s economy. 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will loosen policy aggressively The RBNZ began its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut at its meeting today. Although the Bank appeared to strike a cautious tone about further policy easing, we think it will cut rates more... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of... 13th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2024) The RBA probably won’t read too much into the fact that annual wage growth stalled last quarter. A gradual loosening of the labour market should ensure that wage pressures do ease in the quarters... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The drop in headline consumer price inflation to a one-year low in July should reassure the RBI that June’s surprise jump was a one-off and that the disinflationary trend remains intact. We therefore... 12th August 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Is the yen carry trade unwind already over? After a turbulent start to the week, financial markets have stabilised over recent days, with asset prices and risky currencies recovering some of their sharp falls in the wake of the run of poor US... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul. 2024) Consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but this was entirely due to a weather-related rise in food price inflation. Producer price deflation was unchanged. While a ramp-up in fiscal spending... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
