Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025

The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike

The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jul.)

30th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 24)

The July activity data suggest that the economic recovery continued in Q3 but shifted down at least one gear.

30th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Jul. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Aug. 24)

The jump in the unemployment rate in July should reverse before long as economic activity rebounds. Meanwhile, the renewed pick-up in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August is consistent with our...

30th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boost

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But...

29th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

China’s gold rush has much further to run

Against the backdrop of central bank buying, strong physical gold demand, and a surge in ETF holdings, China appears to have been a key driver of the rally in gold prices earlier this year. Looking...

29th August 2024 · 16 mins read

China Rapid Response

PBOC buys bonds today but will be selling soon

The PBOC has just revealed that it purchased RMB400bn of government bonds from primary dealers today. This might seem like an odd move given that the central bank has spent recent months trying to...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities

The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 2024)

28th August 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2024)

The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI...

27th August 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Update

We think Asian currencies’ rallies will slow, not stop

We expect most Asian currencies to make further gains against the US dollar over time, even if their biggest rallies may now be behind them.

27th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Producer price inflation set to slow further

The persistent strength in producer price inflation probably still mostly reflects the lagged influence of the surge in import costs rather than any pick-up in wage growth. If the yen keeps...

27th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

No need to cry over subsidised milk

This week’s EU-China spat over EV and dairy duties was interpreted by the EU’s Chief diplomat as a sign that a trade war may be “unavoidable”, but we think it is actually evidence that both sides will...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read