Japan Rapid Response

Japan Tankan (Q1 2024)

The slight fall in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that a rapid recovery from the likely slump in Q1 GDP looks unlikely.

1st April 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Activity & Labour Market (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.)

With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter.

29th March 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

President Xi courts foreign firms

President Xi has taken some steps to reassure foreign firms, many of whom remain keen to invest in China. But his wider agenda conflicts with establishing a level playing field for foreign firms. And...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates only in November

While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to...

28th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

MAS likely to loosen policy later than most in Asia

Singapore was an outlier within Asia in terms of how high inflation spiked and it still has higher core inflation than most other economies in the region. The core rate is likely to remain above...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Government readies for FX intervention

With the yen weakening to a fresh 34-year low against the dollar, the Ministry of Finance signaled that an intervention in the foreign exchange markets is imminent. However, the yen will certainly not...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

External position looking healthy, RBI to stand pat

Data released this week show that India's current account deficit narrowed at the end of last year and, while it may widen over the coming months, we think it will remain well within the 2% of GDP...

28th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24)

28th March 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen?

We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing.

27th March 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Prop from stimulus to be short-lived

China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

27th March 2024 · 15 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Still buoyed by policy support

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow...

27th March 2024 · 3 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy pivot creeping closer

We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in...

27th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer

Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb. 24)

Headline Inflation in February once again came in below the expectations of both the analyst consensus and the RBA. But trimmed mean inflation unexpectedly saw a leg up, which could give the RBA pause...

27th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024)

Our Emerging Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to struggle in the near term as weak...

26th March 2024 · 0 mins read