Commodities Update

Thoughts on the oil market sell-off

The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Focus

Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?

With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 17 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We expect exports to remain robust in the near term, supported by the decline in China’s real...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening...

9th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost

Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Indonesia’s reassuring budget, good news on inflation

Indonesia’s budget for 2025 envisages a slight decline in the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP, down from 2.7% this year. The announcement will provide some reassurance that president-elect Prabowo is...

6th September 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Economy in midst of mild slowdown

In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds

Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US.

6th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze

National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Wage growth will slow again next year

The sharp acceleration in regular earnings growth in July poses some upside risks to our wage growth forecasts. And with smaller firms now lifting wages rapidly, too, the Bank of Japan will feel...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September 2024)

5th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year

The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls...

5th September 2024 · 18 mins read