Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update What if the Fed doesn’t cut? Local factors will determine the next moves by most of Asia’s central banks, not the actions of the US Fed. We expect policymakers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Korea to lower interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Productivity malaise may last until end of this decade Weak capital spending is a key reason for Australia’s poor productivity performance. While investment growth has been strong recently, we think it will take until the second half of this decade before... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC faces difficult choice as dollar strengthens The PBOC’s support of the renminbi against a strengthening dollar is resulting in a trade-weighted appreciation of the currency. This risks eroding Chinese export competitiveness and has a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea election blow for President Yoon, Taiwan export boom The poor performance of President Yoon’s PPP party in this week’s parliamentary elections in Korea will make it even harder for the president to push through his conservative reform agenda. That said... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the... 12th April 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea keeps open the possibility of rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but kept open the possibility of rate cuts later this year. However, with inflation concerns continuing to linger, we are pushing back... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen hitting a fresh multi-decade low against the dollar this week, the Ministry of Finance is signaling a growing likelihood of intervention in the foreign exchange markets. However, the Bank... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2024) Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will grow more slowly this year than they did in 2023... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement & Q1 2024 GDP (adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, as expected, but with the economy set to remain weak and core inflation on track to resume its downward trend soon we... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ... 11th April 2024 · 1 min read