Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2024)

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

US tariffs tighten the ratchet again

The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a...

14th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Singapore: demographics key challenge for new PM

Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign...

14th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect

We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy...

14th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen

While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate...

13th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the middle of the year. We remain comfortable with...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr. 2024)

PPI deflation eased and CPI inflation rose in March, but they remained relatively subdued compared with pre-pandemic norms. We think inflation will continue to edge up in the near term. But persistent...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run

The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Targeted regulations won’t fix structural overcapacity

With the EU and US both apparently moving closer to imposing new trade restrictions on EVs and possibly on other "new energy" products from China, China's state media this week made a concerted effort...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Markets Update

Does a weak yen spell trouble for Japanese equities?

Although Japan’s equities and currency have generally moved in tandem in recent weeks, we think the historical inverse relationship between the two will reassert itself before long. We expect a...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BSP to sound dovish, inflation eases in Taiwan

The central bank in the Philippines is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. However, the sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter means the BSP...

10th May 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3

The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read