Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024)

Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support...

30th May 2024 · 3 mins read

RBI Watch

Change in policy stance looks imminent

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 24)

29th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Have JGB yields found their sweet spot?

The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet

Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a...

28th May 2024 · 17 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 24)

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board

The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

What would an end to the property crisis look like?

Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency

The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies

We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle.

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery

GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read