Asia Economics Update

Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May)

The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts

This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)

While house price growth accelerated rather sharply in May, stretched affordability points to a renewed slowdown. Indeed, most leading indicators point to a renewed moderation in price growth.

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India General Election 2024

Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP.

2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Fiscal tailwinds to return, export rush lifts freight rates

Today’s PMIs suggest that China’s rebound is faltering. That appears to reflect a drying up of fiscal support after the initial surge at the beginning of the year. There’s more in the pipeline though...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

India Rapid Response

India GDP (Q1 2024)

The GDP figures for Q1 confirm that India’s economy slowed a touch at the start of the year but was nonetheless still booming on the eve of the general election. Looking ahead, we expect economic...

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher

The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Key highlights from May

This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in May, including our coverage of US tariffs on Chinese-made green technology and recent price movements in the EU...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What to watch for in a momentous week

India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Lower education costs could boost fertility rate

While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA

We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers...

31st May 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (May 2024)

The jump in the Caixin services PMI means that the survey data for May now suggest economic momentum remained fairly robust last month. We think strength in exports, a step-up in fiscal support and...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24)

On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter.

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24)

May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate.

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read