Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China's fiscal announcement falls short of stimulus Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus. 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth partly structural The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Oct. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too. We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months – any drag from potential Trump tariffs may... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The... 7th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (November 2024) 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2024) The modest rise in the unemployment rate last quarter belies the precarity of the jobs market. We still believe the unemployment rate will eventually rise to a peak of 5.6% by end-2025. The dismal... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: more easing likely as inflation falls again With inflation falling back further in October, growth struggling and the property market in the doldrums, the conditions are in place for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates again soon. We think... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
