Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Relapse risks rising Economic activity has been recovering quickly since the second virus wave abated. But we've argued for some time that the rapid reopening increases the risk of new outbreaks. That threat is building... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Calls for more draconian restrictions growing The number of new virus cases hit record highs this week as the Delta variant is now spreading widely. While the vast majority of the elderly are now fully vaccinated and deaths have remained low, the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jun. 2021) The weakness in wage growth in June reflected both a slowdown in regular pay and a drop in summer bonuses. But with the labour market set to tighten and corporate profits on the mend, we think that... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s economy is struggling badly, with Q2 GDP data showing that the recovery lost some momentum even before the latest surge in virus cases, which will have thrown the economy back into... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jun. 2021) Given that most of the rise in exports last quarter was driven by higher commodity prices, net exports probably provided another big drag on GDP growth in Q2. But we think that won’t last much longer. 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (July) After dropping back to just within the central bank’s target range for the first time this year, headline inflation in the Philippines is set to continue falling in the coming months. This will open... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market While the unemployment rate is now back at its pre-virus low, a range of indicators suggest that there is still some slack in the labour market. We think the unemployment rate may eventually fall to 3... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Delta variant and EM tourism troubles The rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus adds to reasons to think that lacklustre economic recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent economies in Africa, parts of the Middle East... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to lower rates further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 0.5% today as expected. Given the deteriorating outlook for the economy and with two of the six MPC members voting for a rate cut, we now... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The rebound in India’s PMI surveys in July provides further evidence that the economy was quick to get back on its feet after the second virus wave. But the rapid reopening, combined with low... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia- Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2021) The decent rise in real retail sales last quarter is consistent with a further rise in consumption in Q2. But given the lockdowns in Q3, we expect consumption to decline before long. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% all but confirms our forecast that the RBNZ will hike rates at its August meeting. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales delay will create a fiscal hole The postponement of the planned privatisation of two state-owned banks to next year has dealt an all-too-familiar blow to the Finance Ministry’s hopes of raising significant revenues from asset sales... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
