Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2021) Today’s flash PMI suggests that the services sector was hit by Tokyo’s state of emergency but we still expect activity to recover towards the end of this quarter. 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks Evergrande appears to be getting closer to a reckoning over the scale of its liabilities as regulators, banks and local governments tighten the screws. It is just the largest of many developers that... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly A coronavirus wave for each Olympic ring While consumption remains a weak link, robust exports and capital spending in Q2 may have helped the economy just about avoid a double-dip recession. And while Japan will be in the midst of a fifth... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity comes storming back One key lesson from the past 18 months is that economies can rebound quickly once virus waves have subsided. Even with this mind, the pace at which activity in India has rebounded from its second wave... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: further rate cuts unlikely despite virus surge Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged today at 3.5%, and despite the worsening near-term outlook caused by a surge in COVID-19 cases, the central bank made clear further cuts are unlikely... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are starting to plateau, after reaching very high levels. We expect some softening ahead as supply chain shortages bite and final demand weakens a touch. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2021) The rebound in exports showed further signs of slowing in June despite another high y/y growth rate caused by base effects. We think external demand will only provide a small tailwind to growth over... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
