India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2021) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the worsening Delta outbreak may yet result in a fall in consumption this quarter. And with supply shortages intensifying, the manufacturing sector isn’t stepping into... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Strong Q4 still on the cards With daily cases surging to unprecedented levels and states of emergency extended to mid-September this week, there may not seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel for Japan’s economy. However... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Shortages to remain a drag on global manufacturing There are growing signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. Despite this, supply shortages look set to persist for some time amid growing evidence that surging virus cases across... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: major challenges await new PM Malaysia’s new prime minister, Ismail Sabri Yaakob, takes over an economy poised to rebound strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic. But the new government looks ill-equipped to deal with the many long... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Growth jitters, tech woes, Huarong lifeline There was plenty for China watchers to digest during the past week. Weak data for July added to growth fears, with virus disruptions and tighter credit conditions meaning that worse is still to come... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike rates next week With new cases of COVID-19 rising, most analysts expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. While it is likely to be a close call, we are sticking with our view that the... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly The broad contours of policy normalisation We’ve argued for some time that the RBI is in no rush to join several of its emerging market peers in tightening monetary policy, a view that has been reinforced by the dovish commentary in the latest... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold but cuts on the horizon Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 16th straight month today. But with the economy losing momentum, we think it won’t be long before the PBOC is guiding rates lower. Even so... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Drag from emergency measures fading While new virus cases and hospitalisations have hit record-highs this week, the rebound in services consumption in Q2 suggests that households are getting increasingly blasé about state of emergency... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2021) While headline inflation rose in July due to a pickup in energy inflation, it’s far weaker than the figure initially reported for June due to the introduction of a new CPI basket this month knocking... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: more hikes to come The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) hiked interest rates today to help support the currency. With the rupee likely to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, further rate hikes are... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
