Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jul. 2021) While the Delta wave may reverse some of July’s jump in employment, we think vaccines will allow employment to surpass its pre-virus level by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the fall in industrial... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Jul. 2021) While retail sales recovered further in July, the high frequency data point to a renewed fall in August as the Delta wave intensified and we’ve pencilled in a 0.8% drop in private consumption in Q3. 30th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021) The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before... 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Delta may soon peak, Kishida seeks to replace Suga The government this week expanded state of emergencies to nearly all prefectures and consumers are responding to the surge in virus cases with renewed caution. We’ve therefore pencilled in a renewed... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022 We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2) We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease. 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Consumer spending to fall across Q3 The latest high-frequency data point to the relentless surge in new coronavirus cases starting to weigh heavily on consumer activity this month. And with full-blown emergency declarations to be... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
