China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Race for next PM wide open after Suga’s resignation The resignation of Prime Minister Suga could mark a return to the tradition of short-lived leaders that characterised Japan’s political system before Abenomics. Even so, the ruling LDP-Komeito... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The sharp rises in India’s services and composite PMI readings in August support our view that the economy has staged a strong rebound in Q3. But downside risks remain significant as the threat of... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of our GDP forecasts Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021) The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in August is probably just a sign of activity normalising following the strong pace of recovery in recent months. But the threat of further virus waves remains a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (August) Having flattened off in previous months, exports saw a renewed rise in August. While this is unlikely to mark the start of another surge, we still expect exports to remain elevated over the coming... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing index dropped to an 18-month low in August, adding to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that industry is coming off the boil. The surveys point to worsening... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 2021) The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) The record y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q2 (Q1 of FY21/22) was due entirely to base effects. We estimate that the economy shrank by 12% in q/q terms as India struggled with its Delta outbreak. Timely... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
