Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in August is probably just a sign of activity normalising following the strong pace of recovery in recent months. But the threat of further virus waves remains a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (August) Having flattened off in previous months, exports saw a renewed rise in August. While this is unlikely to mark the start of another surge, we still expect exports to remain elevated over the coming... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing index dropped to an 18-month low in August, adding to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that industry is coming off the boil. The surveys point to worsening... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 2021) The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) The record y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q2 (Q1 of FY21/22) was due entirely to base effects. We estimate that the economy shrank by 12% in q/q terms as India struggled with its Delta outbreak. Timely... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jul. 2021) While the Delta wave may reverse some of July’s jump in employment, we think vaccines will allow employment to surpass its pre-virus level by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the fall in industrial... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Jul. 2021) While retail sales recovered further in July, the high frequency data point to a renewed fall in August as the Delta wave intensified and we’ve pencilled in a 0.8% drop in private consumption in Q3. 30th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021) The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before... 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
