Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding on the back of a fall in... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does deglobalisation mean for Japan? There are good reasons to think that the natural stalling in globalisation underway won’t do much damage to Japanese manufacturers. And while an abrupt severing of supply chains between China on the... 21st September 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes likely The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by 25bp and made clear further tightening is likely as the central bank shifts its focus away from supporting the recovery and towards... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Three key developments to keep an eye on Most commodity prices ground higher this week. And, stepping back, we think events this week highlight three key themes to watch in the months ahead. First, natural gas prices show no sign of easing... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Mapping decoupling China and countries that align more closely with it than with the US together account for around half of the world’s population. But the China bloc is far smaller economically than the US bloc and far... 17th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Struggling to generate inflation even now While inflation in most advanced economies is now well above central banks’ targets, it is still negative in Japan. This is largely due to idiosyncratic factors that should fade by the middle of next... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
