China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore struggling to live with COVID Singapore’s decision to reimpose some restrictions despite the country’s rapid vaccine rollout raises questions about its long-term strategy of living with COVID-19. The government’s caution will hold... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ishiba could clear path for Kono to become PM Kono Taro is emerging as the favourite to succeed Mr Suga as PM. While Kishida and Takaichi are viewed as safer hands by LDP party elders, the outspoken Kono’s popularity with the public gives him the... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Jump in China commodity imports a flash in the pan China’s imports of key commodities rose almost across the board in August, but we doubt that this is the start of a new upwards trend. Instead, with many of the factors that had boosted demand now... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) Exports and imports were much stronger than anticipated last month thanks to buoyant demand, even as the data point to some lingering supply shortages. We continue to think shipments will soften in... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (August) While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jul. 2021) Wage growth recovered in July and it should strengthen further over the coming months as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a further recovery in overtime pay. Meanwhile, the drop in... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Race for next PM wide open after Suga’s resignation The resignation of Prime Minister Suga could mark a return to the tradition of short-lived leaders that characterised Japan’s political system before Abenomics. Even so, the ruling LDP-Komeito... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The sharp rises in India’s services and composite PMI readings in August support our view that the economy has staged a strong rebound in Q3. But downside risks remain significant as the threat of... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of our GDP forecasts Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021) The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
