Japan Economics Update What does Kishida’s victory mean for Japan? Incoming PM Kishida has provided mixed signals on fiscal policy, pledging a large near-term stimulus while retaining ambitious medium-term consolidation plans. Given that he blamed deregulation for... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds China’s power shortages are a reflection of the global strain in energy markets and won’t be resolved overnight. Power rationing will constrain industrial activity until demand weakens enough to bring... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) GDP data reveal that Vietnam paid a heavy economic price in efforts to control the virus this quarter, but monthly activity data at least suggest that the worst is over and that a recovery is now... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta blow to give way to property downturn Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly States of emergency may end before LDP election Reports this week that PM Suga is keen to end emergency declarations before leaving office on Wednesday are good for our view that output will rebound strongly to above pre-virus levels in Q4... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments prepare to step in Evergrande creditors face a bumpy few weeks with a string of bond coupon payments due. Even if the company can scrape together the cash – not at all certain, given that it just missed one payment... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Supply shortages to persist Taiwan export orders dipped back again in August, suggesting that demand for Asian electronics goods may have peaked. However, with demand still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2021) September’s flash PMIs suggest that while the services sector is bouncing back as the delta wave has ebbed, the manufacturing sector is suffering from weaker demand and mounting supply shortages. 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2021) Headline inflation stayed negative in August as a boost from Go To Travel base effects was offset by a major drag from fresh food inflation. But looking through one-off factors such as Go To and April... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
