Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy constraints easing, autos still struggling Concerns about severe energy shortages in India have eased this week amid encouraging signs of a rebound in coal inventories. But the latest production figures from carmakers suggest that global... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) Malaysia’s economy shrank further in Q3 but was already rebounding sharply by the end of the quarter. with vaccinations high, virus cases down and restrictions being eased, this rebound will continue... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly More cash handouts on the way The latest survey data suggest that consumer spending is still struggling to gain momentum even as the bulk of the population are fully vaccinated and virus cases have plunged. However, with car sales... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Mobile payment takes off The pandemic has triggered a three-fold increase in the use of mobile payments in India. It is unclear whether there has been a corresponding broadening in the number of people using cashless payment... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Broad credit growth levelled off in October having previously decelerated to its slowest pace since December 2005. There are some signs that PBOC policy is turning more supportive in response to... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached a new high last month. But this largely reflects temporary disruption in a handful of industries from energy shortages, which are already easing... 10th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct. 2021) The surge in October’s Economy Watchers Survey is the strongest sign yet that the economy is rebounding rapidly now that the bulk of the population is fully vaccinated and new virus cases have plunged... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2021) Wage growth weakened in September as the Delta wave resulted in a drop in overtime working hours. But with the economy now rebounding and the labour market tightening, we still expect wage growth to... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China metal imports unlikely to last China’s imports of iron ore and copper rose in October compared to a month prior (in seasonally adjusted terms). But we doubt this is the start of a renewed upswing, not least as indicators of demand... 8th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Oct.) Exports continued to soar last month while imports took another leg down despite directives to raise coal supply amid power rationing. As a result, the trade surplus reached its highest level since... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
