Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy tightening still a distant prospect The Bank of Japan shocked no one in keeping its interest rate targets unchanged today, a status quo we think will last for years. The Bank also revised down its growth forecasts for the current fiscal... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) While retail sales rebounded in September as the Delta wave ebbed, supply shortages in the car industry may prevent a full recovery until year-end. 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Global steel output plunged in September primarily owing to a dramatic decline in China’s production. We suspect that China’s output will remain low for some months yet, which will act as a floor... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rising prices won’t prevent rebound in consumption The weaker yen and higher energy prices will reduce the purchasing power of households a bit. But with the household savings rate still very high, this won’t prevent a strong rebound in services... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium outlook brightest once auto sector rebounds The well-documented shortages of semiconductors have slammed the brakes on global vehicle production. As a result, the near-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) demand in autocatalysts have... 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Services recovering but outlook still gloomy Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC fault lines emerge, but doves still in control The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting suggest greater divergence of opinion within the MPC, with two members calling for more definitive steps towards policy normalisation. But most... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy outlook, new forecasts, property tax Ahead of the publication of our quarterly China Economics Outlook next week, we consider how Evergrande's woes, power cuts and supply shortages have shifted prospects for the economy. Our answer... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Carmakers will struggle even after shortages abate The disruptions to supply chains from Delta outbreaks across Southeast Asia that resulted in another big drop in car exports in September will ease soon. However, carmakers are responding with lower... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Billionth vaccine masks worrying slowdown in rollout India this week administered its billionth COVID-19 vaccine dose, but that figure masks a worrying recent slowdown in the vaccination drive. And as a share of the population, the number of fully... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2021) Headline inflation in September turned positive for the first time this year due to spikes in fresh food and energy inflation. As the drag from mobile phone tariffs fades in the first half of next... 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to look through weaker yen and supply shortages Sitting comfortably with continuity candidate PM Kishida in charge, the Bank of Japan won’t alter its major policy settings at its October meeting. And we doubt the Bank will respond with policy... 21st October 2021 · 8 mins read
