Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update Metals can’t ignore China slowdown for much longer Although the China PMI data were a mixed bag in October, the big picture is that they remain at odds with sky-high industrial metals prices. This adds to our view that prices have quite a long way to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water last quarter, with weaker exports and investment meaning the rebound from Q2’s downturn was much more tepid than expected. The pace of recovery is likely to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in October paints an upbeat picture of the health of manufacturing, but the recovery remains fragile against the backdrop of persistent global supply shortages... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged again this month. But the big picture is that power rationing and supply shortages continued to constrain output and push up prices. 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Annual fiscal deficit will be smaller than budgeted Relative to budget estimates, the cumulative fiscal deficit in rupee terms is much smaller than normal for this time of year, due in large part to decent tax revenues. We think the Finance Ministry... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal policy will continue to support the recovery The supplementary budget that PM Kishida will compile by year-end will probably contain only half as much fiscal support as was provided last year. However, given that government spending will still... 1st November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries dropped in September, providing further signs that the industrial recovery is faltering on the back of supply constraints. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.1% in Australia in Q3, the first time it has entered the RBA’s 2-3% target band since 2015. Even more strikingly, trimmed mean inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.4%... 29th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, provisional) Taiwan’s economy rebounded last quarter but by much less than expected due to a further fall in consumption. But with virus cases now very low and the vaccine rollout gathering momentum, we expect GDP... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services recovering, industry still ailing This week’s activity data provided further evidence that supply shortages in the car sector are holding back the recovery. We expect car production to rebound this quarter as factories in Southeast... 29th October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) The rise in retail sales in September means that the trough in consumption is now behind us. We expect retail sales to rebound in Q4 as restrictions relax and a growing number of Australians are able... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep. 2021) While employment fell sharply again in September it should rise strongly across Q4 as economic activity gets back to near normal now that most restrictions have been lifted. Meanwhile, the sharp fall... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
