China Economics Update RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow? The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks, shortly after Premier Li and the Politburo each separately hinted at an increase in policy support... 6th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Participation rate set to fall further The pandemic has brought a halt to the last decade’s rise in Japan’s participation rate which had allowed the labour force to expand despite challenging demographics. Any post-pandemic recovery is... 6th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Omicron restrictions wouldn’t jolt BoJ into action Even if Omicron proves more transmissible than Delta, its impact on Japan’s economy could vary substantially depending on how deadly it is, how well it evades vaccines, and PM Kishida’s appetite for... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka The economic situation in Sri Lanka is going from bad to worse, with a surge in inflation undermining the credibility of the central bank (CBSL) and making a debt default all the more likely. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big a threat is Omicron to Asia? Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to hold rates in face of Omicron uncertainty Whereas many EM central banks have been hiking rates aggressively, the RBI has been taking only baby steps towards policy tightening over the past couple of months. And the emergence of the Omicron... 1st December 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The 8.4% y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q3 (Q2 of FY21/22) is consistent with a rapid q/q rebound as virus restrictions were lifted and activity surged. But timelier data suggest that the recovery has... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs suggest that industrial activity rebounded this month thanks to easing disruptions from power shortages while a renewed virus flare-up held back the recovery in services. And while... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
