Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Easing signalled for 2022 The past week, culminating in the conclusion today of the economic planning meeting for 2022, leaves little doubt that policy support is being stepped up. There’s even a chance, we think, of a policy... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation risks growing, vaccine production cuts The RBI delivered no surprises this week. If a hike does materialise in the next few months, a shock from food prices would be the most likely trigger. Meanwhile, although the Serum Institute is... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates The central bank of Taiwan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Thursday (both the consensus and ourselves expect no change). Despite the economy operating well-above its... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage-boosting tax breaks, Toyota setback The government’s new plan to offer firms more generous tax deductions for raising wages is unlikely to lift wage growth to 3% as targeted by PM Kishida. But with smaller firms being offered corporate... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices still set for a downturn We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to extend Covid aid, won’t lose control of yields While renewed virus restrictions are unlikely to be deflationary, we think Omicron fears will prompt the Bank of Japan to err on the side of caution and extend its emergency corporate funding measures... 9th December 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth edged up for the first time in nine months in November. Given increased policy support we think the recent slowdown in lending has come to an end. But we think officials will seek... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer price inflation rose above 2% for the first time in over a year last month. But this was almost entirely due to food prices. Core inflation remains subdued and producer prices have levelled... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI still taking baby steps towards tightening The MPC voted to keep policy rates on hold today, opting only to introduce further small measures to withdraw liquidity from the banking sector. With the RBI still focusing primarily on supporting the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Exports and imports beat expectations last month thanks to stronger demand and easing semiconductor shortages. In the near-term, the emergence of the Omicron variant is likely to support demand for... 7th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021) Wage growth stayed weak in October but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent vaccine-led reopening allows a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea facing a policy dilemma We expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising interest rates next year, but the worsening near-term prospects for growth mean the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear cut. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
