FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased Local authorities in China appear to be becoming more adept at bringing Covid outbreaks under control with relatively little disruption to economic activity. Meanwhile, this week’s easing of land... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sitharaman pleads, Das reassures Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week made an impassioned plea for the private sector to ramp up investment to support the economic recovery, but we don’t think that firms will heed her call... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vaccine progress, external turnaround in Indonesia After a slow start, countries across South East Asia are now making encouraging progress with vaccine rollouts. The rise in coverage should reduce the need for further lockdowns and set the stage for... 19th November 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Home sales on the cusp of a rebound New home sales have dropped by a fifth since March, a similar-sized slump to those seen during the previous two housing downturns. With policy now turning more supportive, high-frequency data suggest... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2021) Headline inflation edged down in October despite an acceleration in energy inflation. Hit yet again by weaker mobile phone tariff inflation underlying inflation weakened further into negative... 19th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia is in no rush to tighten Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and appeared to signal that policy rates would remain unchanged for some time yet. A large output gap and weak inflation mean the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rates will stay low to support recovery The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2021) The recovery in exports in October suggests that supply shortages were beginning to ease in the automobile sector. We think that the rebound in exports will pick up pace over the coming months as... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch China managing a coal market trilemma In this Energy Watch, we look at what recent policy changes mean for China’s coal market . The main take-away is that the changes should increase Chinese coal production and temper demand growth in... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline wholesale price inflation in October was due almost entirely to higher commodity prices, but we think they are now close to peaking. While the RBI will be wary that wholesale... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
