Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia will not follow the Fed Domestic factors, rather than the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine what happens to monetary policy across Asia over the coming year. – This will be the last Economics Weekly for 2021... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ won’t join hawkish shift by other central banks While central banks elsewhere are becoming increasingly hawkish, the Bank of Japan kept policy loose today and is set to remain among the most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future. 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 We will be publishing our Key Calls for 2022 in due course but, in our last Weekly of 2021, we take a look at what we got right and wrong this year. – This will be the last India Economics Weekly for... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: rates to stay low despite rising inflation Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125% and despite rising inflation, surging property prices and the strong economy, we don’t think policymakers will be in any rush... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia in no rush to raise interest rates Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and despite the prospect of the US Fed raising interest rates soon, we don’t think BI will be in any rush to tighten... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2021) The jump in exports in November suggests that most supply chain constraints in the automobile sector had already eased last month. We think that exports will remain strong over the coming months as... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) Industry in China continued to rebound last month from disruptions caused by power shortages while the recovery in services activity was held back by renewed virus outbreaks. A new COVID outbreak in... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM earnings expectations are too optimistic In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we... 14th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: confusing signals from the central bank The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by a further 100bp, which came as little surprise. What was unexpected, however, was the sudden shift in tone in the statement. Despite the... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Indian wholesale price inflation unexpectedly jumped to a record high in November. And given the mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook, there is a growing chance that the RBI brings forward... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) India’s consumer price inflation rose to a three-month in November and upside risks to the outlook are mounting. While we still think the RBI won’t raise policy rates until the middle of next year, a... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4 2021) The Q4 Tankan survey showed that the services sector has started to narrow the gap relative to manufacturing and we think that process has further to run. 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
