Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to hike at least three more times in 2022 Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year. 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Service sector recovery remains lacklustre Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021) November’s flash PMI points to a rebound in industrial output amidst early signs that supply shortages are diminishing. But while the services sector is now on the mend, the recovery there is lacking... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Export orders dip, but shortages will persist Taiwan export orders dropped back in October, but the big picture is that they are down only slightly over the past few months and remain at an elevated level. Looking ahead, we expect demand to... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan not losing control of money market Media reports that suggest that the Bank of Japan is losing control of short-term interest rates due to its “Special Deposit Facility” encouraging banks to park reserves at the BoJ are wide of the... 22nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold but wider easing already underway The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the 19th consecutive month today. But officials are already easing policy in other ways, such as by relaxing constraints on mortgage lending. The PBOC... 22nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Nov.) Korean export values saw continued strength in the first 20 days of November and should remain elevated in the coming months as exporters work through large backlogs of unmet orders. 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus package large but smaller than reported The stimulus unveiled today by PM Kishida’s new cabinet was broadly in line with expectations despite inflated headline figures quoted in media reports which we think are padded with loans and... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes coming Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised interest rates by an aggressive 150bp and with inflation set to remain above target and the currency likely to come under further downward pressure, further... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
