China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices... 4th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2021) Headline inflation picked up in November due to another acceleration in energy inflation and a further rise in fresh food inflation. Underlying inflation remained weak, and while it will accelerate... 24th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think PBOC easing will push down CGB yields While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to... 22nd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022 Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that... 22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs of an upturn in... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep interest rates low The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5% and hinted in its statement that it was in little rush to tighten monetary policy. The setback to the tourism sector caused by the... 22nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Despite a y/y fall in global aluminium output in November, it is still up strongly year-to-date. And it is likely to rise again from here as power restrictions in China are lifted and high prices... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Easing cycle has further to run The People’s Bank has taken another modest easing step with a 5bp reduction to the One-Year Loan Prime Rate, although it kept the Five-Year rate on hold. We expect more easing to follow in the coming... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
