India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to hold rates in face of Omicron uncertainty Whereas many EM central banks have been hiking rates aggressively, the RBI has been taking only baby steps towards policy tightening over the past couple of months. And the emergence of the Omicron... 1st December 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The 8.4% y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q3 (Q2 of FY21/22) is consistent with a rapid q/q rebound as virus restrictions were lifted and activity surged. But timelier data suggest that the recovery has... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs suggest that industrial activity rebounded this month thanks to easing disruptions from power shortages while a renewed virus flare-up held back the recovery in services. And while... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Activity Data (Oct.) Korea’s economy is likely to have already rebounded from the downbeat October revealed in activity data today. But prospects for continued improvements have diminished, as a resurgence in virus cases... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct. 2021) Employment fell sharply again in October despite the lifting of states of emergency declarations at the start of the month. However, it should rebound sharply across November and December in line with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Omicron tests China’s zero-COVID strategy The global spread of a more transmissible COVID variant is a particular challenge for a country trying to remain COVID-free. But after nearly two years of success suppressing infections domestically... 29th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase. 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Capacity constraints put a ceiling on export outlook In the long-run, the global spread of highly-transmissible coronavirus strains may make China’s zero-COVID stance untenable but the immediate response to concerns about B.1.1.529 is more likely to be... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
