Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Exports and imports beat expectations last month thanks to stronger demand and easing semiconductor shortages. In the near-term, the emergence of the Omicron variant is likely to support demand for... 7th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021) Wage growth stayed weak in October but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent vaccine-led reopening allows a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea facing a policy dilemma We expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising interest rates next year, but the worsening near-term prospects for growth mean the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear cut. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow? The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks, shortly after Premier Li and the Politburo each separately hinted at an increase in policy support... 6th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Participation rate set to fall further The pandemic has brought a halt to the last decade’s rise in Japan’s participation rate which had allowed the labour force to expand despite challenging demographics. Any post-pandemic recovery is... 6th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Omicron restrictions wouldn’t jolt BoJ into action Even if Omicron proves more transmissible than Delta, its impact on Japan’s economy could vary substantially depending on how deadly it is, how well it evades vaccines, and PM Kishida’s appetite for... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka The economic situation in Sri Lanka is going from bad to worse, with a surge in inflation undermining the credibility of the central bank (CBSL) and making a debt default all the more likely. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big a threat is Omicron to Asia? Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
