Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022 In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Shrinking balance sheet won’t lead to tighter policy While Omicron is likely to intensify input price pressures, most Japanese firms will continue to absorb those costs in their margins, ensuring inflation stays well below the Bank’s 2% target. And in... 12th January 2022 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth picked up again in December amid increased policy support. We think lending will continue to rebound in the coming months although officials are likely to prevent a sharp jump. 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Chinese inflation dropped back last month, consistent with our view that the acceleration in price gains in earlier months would prove temporary. We think factory-gate inflation will continue to... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines in no rush to hike, new growth forecasts Falling inflation and an increasingly uncertain economic outlook add weight to our non-consensus view that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) will not tighten monetary policy in 2022. Meanwhile... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam Japan’s car industry has rebounded quickly from the disruptions caused by Delta waves across South-East Asia a few months ago. But amidst persistent supply shortages, output hasn’t quite returned to... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Nov. 2021) Wage growth fell to zero in November due a slump in bonus payments, but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent reopening feeds into a renewed recovery in overtime and bonus... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Key calls for 2022 As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that Indian GDP growth will accelerate this year. At the same time, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than generally expected... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s PMIs remained buoyant in December, suggesting that activity continued picking up towards the end of 2021. We think the recovery will gain momentum this year but a recent sharp jump in... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Key calls for 2022 We expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year as services spending finally returns to near-normal. However, the risks to that forecast remain tilted to the downside as... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs show demand stabilising, not reigniting The December PMI data for China point to a healthy pick-up in commodity demand. But this only partially reverses the declines from earlier in 2021, and the big picture remains that commodity demand in... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
