Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Despite a y/y fall in global aluminium output in November, it is still up strongly year-to-date. And it is likely to rise again from here as power restrictions in China are lifted and high prices... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Easing cycle has further to run The People’s Bank has taken another modest easing step with a 5bp reduction to the One-Year Loan Prime Rate, although it kept the Five-Year rate on hold. We expect more easing to follow in the coming... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia will not follow the Fed Domestic factors, rather than the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine what happens to monetary policy across Asia over the coming year. – This will be the last Economics Weekly for 2021... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ won’t join hawkish shift by other central banks While central banks elsewhere are becoming increasingly hawkish, the Bank of Japan kept policy loose today and is set to remain among the most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future. 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 We will be publishing our Key Calls for 2022 in due course but, in our last Weekly of 2021, we take a look at what we got right and wrong this year. – This will be the last India Economics Weekly for... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: rates to stay low despite rising inflation Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125% and despite rising inflation, surging property prices and the strong economy, we don’t think policymakers will be in any rush... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia in no rush to raise interest rates Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and despite the prospect of the US Fed raising interest rates soon, we don’t think BI will be in any rush to tighten... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2021) The jump in exports in November suggests that most supply chain constraints in the automobile sector had already eased last month. We think that exports will remain strong over the coming months as... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
