Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2022) Exports were broadly unchanged in January despite Omicron surges at home and abroad. We think they’ll rebound further this year as external demand for capital goods rises further and motor vehicle... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese inflation continued to drop back last month. Although there are some signs of supply disruption, we think these will be temporary. Factory-gate inflation should moderate further while consumer... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A pause, not an end, to easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has refrained from further policy easing for the time being. It left rates unchanged today when injecting liquidity via its reverse repo operations and medium-term lending... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2021 Preliminary) While Omicron will cause Japan’s economy to do little more than tread water this quarter following a rebound in Q4, output should soon resume its recovery and get back on its pre-virus trend by the... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Indian consumer price inflation reached the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in January and, in contrast to the central bank, we think it will rise a bit further over the coming months. That will... 14th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation already closing in on RBI’s ceiling A key takeaway from the RBI’s policy meeting this week was that the Bank remains relaxed about the inflation outlook, expecting the headline CPI rate to peak within the tolerance band (2-6%) this... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore budget, elections loom in the Philippines The focus of Singapore’s 2022 budget next Friday will be on steps to raise revenues to help deal with a rapidly ageing population, as the government shifts away from supporting the economy through the... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sets its stall out, three more weeks of restrictions The Bank of Japan’s first unlimited fixed rate auction in three-and-a-half years is likely to send a strong signal to investors that +0.25% is right now a clear line in the sand for 10-year JGB yields... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on China made none of the additional purchases it committed to under the Phase One trade deal. The Biden administration isn’t pleased but doesn’t have good options to force China to do more. And China... 10th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Broad credit growth accelerated for the third consecutive month in January as policy support continued to feed through. With more easing on the horizon we expect this trend to continue for a while... 10th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation means the tightening cycle is likely to be very gradual. 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The recent hawkish turn by many major central banks did not faze the RBI today, which continued to project a dovish tone while keeping policy settings unchanged. But inflation risks are building and... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
