China Economics Weekly HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support Hong Kong will be an exception to the global pattern that Omicron inflicts less economic damage than earlier virus variants. The city’s zero-COVID policies are proving far less effective than the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging developments in the Philippines The Philippines has been hit harder than any other country in the region by the pandemic, but the past week has at least brought some good news. The latest Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 4th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy back in recovery mode next month Omicron disruption to supply chains was already holding back industrial production in some sectors in December. And with domestic cases surging since then the recovery will have gone into reverse at... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly E-rupee will have to battle consumer indifference One of the more eye-catching elements of the Union Budget was the pledge that the RBI would introduce a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the upcoming fiscal year. That would make the Reserve... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Tightening to begin with reverse repo hike After months of incremental moves, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will take a decisive step towards policy tightening by hiking the reverse repo rate at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on... 3rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Jan.) The drop in India’s PMIs in January suggest that activity weakened as the Omicron variant spread across the country. But the impact appears to be much less severe than that of the last two virus waves... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The UP election and what it means for reforms The upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) – India’s most populous state and one of its most politically important – is already having an impact on economic policy as contentious reforms have been... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Budget should deliver stronger growth and inflation Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered a more growth-friendly Union Budget than most had expected today. But rather than unveiling measures to shore up support ahead of state elections, new... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker China sets stage for fall in commodity prices The latest PMI data out of China suggest that demand for commodities softened again in January. And with Chinese demand unlikely to bounce back meaningfully this year, we continue to expect sharp... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth slowed in January due to a combination of weaker foreign demand, cooling property activity and efforts to contain recent outbreaks. We think... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 2021) The small fall in both retail sales and industrial production in December suggests that the post-Delta rebound was losing steam before local Omicron cases started to surge. And while output is still... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks A successful vaccination campaign means that, despite a surge in COVID cases, Korea is sticking with its plans to reopen the economy. This supports our view that Omicron will have only a small impact... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy barely grew in Q4 despite a rebound in goods exports. And with stricter containment measures imposed this month to contain the latest outbreak, we expect an outright contraction... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
