Bank of Japan Watch 2% inflation wouldn’t be enough for rate hike While the war in Ukraine will lift Japanese inflation to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, continued weakness in wage pressures and underlying inflation mean that the Bank won’t respond with a rate hike... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: new president a clear break from Moon Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in yesterday’s presidential election should lead to a shift away from the bigger, and more active state that began under President Moon. But the lack of a parliamentary... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Soaring energy prices unlikely to dent profits much The recent spike in energy prices will lift import prices in Japan by around 10%, but the increase would be twice as large if Russian energy exports were banned. Japan’s flagship manufacturing sectors... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Chinese inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. With commodity prices soaring in response to the war in Ukraine, inflation will rise further in... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 22) The pick-up in wage growth in January was broad-based. However, with regular pay growth still around 0%, the coming energy-driven surge in inflation towards the BoJ’s 2% target won’t be sustained... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2022 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress signal that China’s leadership is expecting much weaker growth this year than the relatively upbeat GDP growth target might... 7th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China unlikely to ramp up Russian energy imports The latest trade data show that China’s energy imports contracted in the first two months of the year in y/y terms. And even if the West were to cut off Russian energy imports altogether, we doubt... 7th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Trade volumes remained strong last month but are likely to soften over the coming quarters as China’s import-intensive construction sector cools further and rising inflation dampens demand for... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update More hikes in Sri Lanka unlikely to prevent default With inflation surging, the currency coming under downward pressure and the country on the verge of a sovereign default, today’s 100bp rate hike in Sri Lanka won’t be the last in the current cycle... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening Mainland China and Hong Kong both have high vaccination rates in aggregate. But they share a common weakness in having few of their elderly vaccinated. A surge in deaths in Hong Kong is now... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may get less dovish, GDP to fall in Q1 PM Kishida’s two new Bank of Japan policy board nominations could push the Bank in a slightly less dovish direction, but it won’t make much difference to policy decisions over the next year. A more... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Feb.) The rebound in India’s February PMIs suggests that activity is bouncing back as the Omicron outbreak subsides. And we think that there’s still significant scope for the economy to grow rapidly over... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2022) Employment fell back yet again in January after a strong rebound in December. But while employment might have fallen a bit further in February due to the Omicron wave, it should soon bounce back fast... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
