China Economics Update COVID-19 derails China’s domestic recovery yet again The current virus wave will deal the biggest blow to China’s service sector since the original outbreak. If the lockdowns already imposed can suppress infections quickly then disruption to industry... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2022) Exports fell again in February, though they should rebound over the coming months provided the recent Omicron outbreak in China doesn’t cause major supply chain disruptions to resurface. Bank of Japan... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.), PBOC Rates (Mar.) Activity data for the first two months of the year was stronger than anticipated, which probably explains why the People’s Bank (PBOC) unexpectedly kept its policy rates on hold today. But the economy... 15th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation breached the RBI’s 6% ceiling in February, sooner than even our relatively hawkish forecasts had suggested. The surge in commodity prices will keep the headline rate... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation now the biggest concern for the BoK Concerns about inflation in Korea are rising, just as those about financial stability risks are starting to recede. Despite the worsening growth outlook caused by the surge in energy prices and war in... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Indian wholesale price inflation remained near historic highs in February, and it is likely to stay elevated in the near term given the recent surge in commodity prices. 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New GDP growth forecasts We are cutting our GDP growth forecasts for many parts of emerging Asia in response to the surge in global energy prices and the war in Ukraine. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly The near-term outlook has deteriorated The National People’s Congress concluded today with a pledge of policy support for the ailing economy from Premier Li. The next dose could come next week, when the PBOC has a chance to lower its MLF... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price surge to dent but not derail recovery We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8%-pts on account of the surge in oil prices and the resulting hit to investment in particular. We now think the economy will grow by 9.2% this... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Broad credit growth was much weaker than expected last month, reversing much of the acceleration of the past few months. This suggests that more easing measures will be needed to meet the policy... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Soaring energy prices will slow consumption growth In our base case, soaring energy prices and pass-through of higher energy input costs to manufactured goods will knock off 1.5%-pts from households’ disposable income. While the still high savings... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update State election results could reignite reform agenda The BJP’s performance in India’s state elections keeps it in a strong position nationally to pursue politically-difficult reforms. But it may instead conclude that its strong electoral showing was... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
