Asia Economics Update Singapore: ageing population prompts tax hikes The centrepiece of Singapore’s budget today was confirmation that the Goods and Service Tax will rise next year and again in 2024. The hike is intended to help pay for an increase in healthcare... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening The recent rise in oil prices poses a key upside risk to our inflation forecasts. We already expect rate hikes this year in Korea, India and Indonesia. We think Taiwan, where price pressures have... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Green shoots in the housing market Local-level support for the property market is stepping up a gear, with down-payment requirements being eased in a handful of cities. This follows national-level efforts to push down mortgage rates... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly LIC IPO unlikely to ignite privatisation drive Local media has been awash with commentary about the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) after the state-owned behemoth this week submitted its draft prospectus. From a... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine boost, surging manufacturing profits Services spending finally showed signs of life last quarter, underlining that the vaccine boost is finally filtering through. Another reason to be confident about the outlook is that consumer price... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2022) Inflation slowed in January but that was entirely down to the base effects boost from the Go To Travel campaign disappearing. While underlying inflation is unlikely to reach 1% until later in the year... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2022) Exports were broadly unchanged in January despite Omicron surges at home and abroad. We think they’ll rebound further this year as external demand for capital goods rises further and motor vehicle... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese inflation continued to drop back last month. Although there are some signs of supply disruption, we think these will be temporary. Factory-gate inflation should moderate further while consumer... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A pause, not an end, to easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has refrained from further policy easing for the time being. It left rates unchanged today when injecting liquidity via its reverse repo operations and medium-term lending... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2021 Preliminary) While Omicron will cause Japan’s economy to do little more than tread water this quarter following a rebound in Q4, output should soon resume its recovery and get back on its pre-virus trend by the... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Indian consumer price inflation reached the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in January and, in contrast to the central bank, we think it will rise a bit further over the coming months. That will... 14th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
