Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Strong Asian export data, but will it last? Taiwan new export orders picked up again in February, but we don’t expect this strength to continue as high oil prices start to weigh on consumer spending around the world. Meanwhile, the risks to... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration revival won’t let RBA off the hook Migration is rebounding much faster after the border reopening than we had anticipated. While that will slow the decline in the unemployment rate, the labour market is already historically tight and... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ won’t tighten even as inflation reaches 2% target The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today and signalled that it is more worried about the negative impact of higher commodity prices on activity than about inflation spiralling out of... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supply chain disruption could take the gloss off Q2 All domestic restrictions will be removed on Monday after two-and-a-half months of quasi-states of emergency covering most of the economy. Our assumption is that Japan – as PM Kishida hopes – will now... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2022) Inflation picked up in February due to another jump in utilities inflation and a strong rise in fresh food inflation. We think headline inflation will rise above 2% in April as some of the spike in... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan hikes rates, but further tightening to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today unexpectedly raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 1.375%, but we doubt this is the start of an aggressive tightening cycle given the mounting downside risks to growth... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation and strong performance of the rupiah mean the tightening cycle is likely to be very... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2022) The fall in machinery orders in January suggests that business investment may not recover much this quarter from a disappointing 2021. But with corporate profits recovering strongly last year, firms... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
