Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy adds pressure on RBA to hike rates With the government facing defeat in May’s election, today’s Budget continued the course of loose fiscal policy that began at the start of the pandemic. As the unemployment rate is set to fall to a 50... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Cracks appearing in Yield Curve Control It hasn’t failed yet but the Bank of Japan’s need to return repeatedly this week to defend the ceiling of its yield target suggests that cracks are appearing in the structure of Yield Curve Control... 29th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2022) Employment was unchanged in February after January’s sizeable fall. But with all domestic restrictions since lifted and activity resuming its recovery, employment is set for a strong rebound over the... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly More dovish signals from South East Asia Dovish comments from policymakers over the past week support our view that central banks in South East Asia will buck the trend of global tightening and leave interest rates unchanged over the coming... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee-ruble exchange, virus restrictions lifted Indian authorities are in advanced discussions with their Russian counterparts over a rupee-ruble exchange system that would enable the two countries to continue trading even as Russia gets blocked... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron continues to take a toll Virus cases remain elevated and although authorities appear to be identifying and isolating a rising share of infections, new outbreaks are still popping up in parts of the country. The resulting... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore reopening will add to inflationary pressures Yesterday’s easing of virus restrictions in Singapore exceeded what we had expected, and now means the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast of 4.0% this year are to the upside. The measures... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds gathering over the near-term outlook Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: central bank in no rush to tighten The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today and will be in little hurry to tighten policy in the months ahead, with supporting the economic recovery set... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2022) The March flash manufacturing PMI suggests that the war in Ukraine has intensified supply chain disruption for firms. By contrast, activity in the services sector bounced back and should continue to... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka running out of options Sri Lanka has no easy choices left as it looks to dig itself out of its economic mess. Outright default or a financing deal with China remain options, but the government appears to be favouring an... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect some further yen weakness amid rising US yields Our expectation that US Treasury yields will rise further leads us to conclude that the yen will weaken more against the dollar and we have revised up our end-year USD/JPY forecasts for both 2022 and... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor A stronger start to 2022 gives way to fresh weakness Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy started the year on a stronger footing than it ended 2021. But these gains are already being derailed by China’s worst virus outbreak since... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
